Exploring $SYNA Valuation Discount
SYNA stock is down ~25% YTD, trading at EV/S of ~1x (vs. peer group at ~3x+), a valuation discount worth exploring. Synaptics was affected by the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 fiasco over the last year, as well as a secular shift toward integrated touch+display-driver (TDDI), starting with lower-margin low-end phones in China. The shift toward […]
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Interpreting $FCAU Investment Risks
FCAU (Fiat Chrysler Automobiles) appears to be attracting attention recently, with the stock up ~27% over the last 3 months vs. S&P 500 index up ~3%. Starting with FCAU’s valuation discount, I try to interpret investment risks for the stock. The chart below compares FCAU with U.S. peers Ford, GM, and Tesla. At EV/S (TTM) […]
Read More$AMD vs. $NVDA – Where’s the Discount?
Both AMD and NVDA offer exposure to GPU Compute, arguably a very desirable capability with growing applications in artificial intelligence, AR/VR and self-driving car. Both AMD and NVDA stocks have approximately tripled over the last couple of years, so it’s probably safe to assume that the average investor in either of these stocks directly or […]
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Preparing for a Lithium Rush
My view is that catalysts for self-driving cars will also drive a transition to battery-powered electric vehicles. A shift from human driver to machine driver will initially add significant new computational costs to the vehicle bill of materials (BOM). One way to accommodate such costs in the BOM is to replace IC engine powertrain with […]
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$PLAB AMOLED Inflection in 2017
Photronics (PLAB) makes photo masks for semiconductor and display panel manufacturing. The chart below shows PLAB’s revenue mix. Over the last 6 quarters, flat-panel display (FPD) revenues have grown on average at 18% YoY, while IC revenues grew at 4%. If the display industry inflects toward AMOLED, as I think it is likely to, PLAB’s […]
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$INVN Valuation & Momentum Indicators
The chart below suggests that INVN stock price is tracking below NTM EPS projections, an understandable dynamic following severe dislocation in Invensense’s gyro/OIS market share, particularly in Samsung smartphone. Invensense experienced elevated pricing pressure surrounding its loss of market share at Samsung. Pricing pressure translated into lower gross margins. At EV/S of ~1.8x […]
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3 Reasons to Own $MU
I believe there are 3 reasons to continue to own $MU: 1) early stage of a cyclical recovery, 2) technology catch-up, and 3) inexpensive play on VR/AR and Self-Driving Car. Cyclical supply/demand recovery: A combination of supply cuts and demand upgrades has pushed the memory industry into a favorable supply/demand environment, which is […]
Read MoreIs $MBLY Valuation Risk Priced In?
When a relatively recent IPO is trading at ~30x Revenues (MBLY traded at EV/S TTM multiples of ~25x to 100x since IPO), is owned by high-quality investors, and there does not seem to be a legitimate bear case to be easily found, there is usually cause for concern. The concern is that everyone (sellside and […]
Read MoreWhat’s a Convolutional Neural Network?
The popular name for Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) these days is “Deep Learning” (DL) or Deep Neural Network (DNN). Researchers at Google, Facebook, IBM, Nvidia, and potentially a number of other companies are experimenting with their own variations of DL algorithms based on CNN. Twitter recently acquired a company called Magic Pony to increase focus […]
Read MoreAre Self-Driving Cars Safe?
Well, clearly not safe enough to deal with a high-riding tractor trailer at freeway speeds, yet. Media reports suggest a self-driving Tesla (on “autopilot”) was involved in a fatal crash a couple of months ago. While all the details about the circumstances of the crash will probably not become available until after a full NHTSA […]
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