$MU Positive Pre-Announcement
Earlier this week Micron increased its earnings guidance for the quarter ending Nov-16, to be reported later this month. Revised guidance is for revenues and EPS to be significantly above the high-end of prior guidance, and gross margins to be at the high-end of prior guidance, driven primarily by higher DRAM prices. Micron also noted […]
Read More$MU Revenue and Gross Margin Inflections
Micron’s F4Q16 (C3Q16) earnings report highlights a YoY revenue inflection (chart below), with YoY revenue growth expected to turn positive next quarter. Both higher bit shipments and prices for DRAM appear to be driving the inflection. Micron’s gross margins are also inflecting up – the chart below shows quarterly corporate average gross margins, […]
Read More3 Reasons to Own $MU
I believe there are 3 reasons to continue to own $MU: 1) early stage of a cyclical recovery, 2) technology catch-up, and 3) inexpensive play on VR/AR and Self-Driving Car. Cyclical supply/demand recovery: A combination of supply cuts and demand upgrades has pushed the memory industry into a favorable supply/demand environment, which is […]
Read MoreInterpreting $MU 20nm DRAM Progress & Price Stabilization
As the chart illustrates, according to inSpectrum, 4Gb DDR3 DRAM spot prices increased by 5% MoM in June, with June ending prices ~15% higher than May ending prices. 4Gb DDR4 DRAM spot prices remained virtually unchanged MoM in June on average, but June ending prices were ~8% higher than May ending prices. Overall MayQ DDR3 […]
Read More$MU: What’s Technology Catch-up Worth?
I first introduced this “technology catch-up” thesis in late-2012, and believe it has been in play more or less since then, and will continue to remain in play for the foreseeable future. Various other events in the industry over that period made it difficult for investors to identify or appreciate this underlying phenomenon consistently. Yet […]
Read More$AMAT Stock Catching Up To Fundamentals
Picking up where I left off discussion of AMAT in my book, the period following TEL (Tokyo Electron) merger termination proved to be a good time to buy the stock, with good margin of safety. As the charts below illustrate, even though fundamentals for AMAT (as represented by NTM EPS estimates) on a standalone basis […]
Read MoreNAND Spot Prices May 2016
The chart shows NAND spot prices as of May 2016 for 64Gb and 128Gb MLC and TLC NAND components, based on data provided by inSpectrum. According to this data, 128Gb TLC spot prices decreased by ~27% YoY, 128Gb MLC prices decreased ~24%, 64Gb TLC prices decreased ~16%, while 64Gb MLC prices remained stable. […]
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