$INFN Path to Recovery
INFN stock is down ~50% YTD driven by sharp YoY declines in revenues and earnings (see chart below). Both company management and investors seem to be surprised at the extent of revenue declines, which after progressively worsening have driven INFN’s EV/S valuation multiple near ~1x. This level of stock decline typically carries with […]
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Preparing for a Lithium Rush
My view is that catalysts for self-driving cars will also drive a transition to battery-powered electric vehicles. A shift from human driver to machine driver will initially add significant new computational costs to the vehicle bill of materials (BOM). One way to accommodate such costs in the BOM is to replace IC engine powertrain with […]
Read More$INFN PAM-4 Boogeyman
The $INFN PAM-4 boogeyman was probably born at the time PAM-4 was first conceived a couple of years ago. However the PAM-4 scare appears to have hit INFN shares after Microsoft announced earlier this year that it would deploy Inphi PAM-4-based optics for Data Center Interconnect (DCI). As the chart shows, INFN shares […]
Read MoreWhat’s a Convolutional Neural Network?
The popular name for Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) these days is “Deep Learning” (DL) or Deep Neural Network (DNN). Researchers at Google, Facebook, IBM, Nvidia, and potentially a number of other companies are experimenting with their own variations of DL algorithms based on CNN. Twitter recently acquired a company called Magic Pony to increase focus […]
Read MoreAre Self-Driving Cars Safe?
Well, clearly not safe enough to deal with a high-riding tractor trailer at freeway speeds, yet. Media reports suggest a self-driving Tesla (on “autopilot”) was involved in a fatal crash a couple of months ago. While all the details about the circumstances of the crash will probably not become available until after a full NHTSA […]
Read MoreInterpreting $MU 20nm DRAM Progress & Price Stabilization
As the chart illustrates, according to inSpectrum, 4Gb DDR3 DRAM spot prices increased by 5% MoM in June, with June ending prices ~15% higher than May ending prices. 4Gb DDR4 DRAM spot prices remained virtually unchanged MoM in June on average, but June ending prices were ~8% higher than May ending prices. Overall MayQ DDR3 […]
Read More$ORCL: Who Cares if SaaS Apps are just Hosted Apps?
Software as a Service (SaaS) is a relatively new breed of Cloud-based software apps that seek to: 1) provide superior capabilities compared to traditional desktop apps 2) easily scale up required infrastructure as client needs grow 3) improve monetization of apps for providers of the apps Arguably #3 might be most important for app providers, […]
Read More$MU: What’s Technology Catch-up Worth?
I first introduced this “technology catch-up” thesis in late-2012, and believe it has been in play more or less since then, and will continue to remain in play for the foreseeable future. Various other events in the industry over that period made it difficult for investors to identify or appreciate this underlying phenomenon consistently. Yet […]
Read MoreNAND Spot Prices May 2016
The chart shows NAND spot prices as of May 2016 for 64Gb and 128Gb MLC and TLC NAND components, based on data provided by inSpectrum. According to this data, 128Gb TLC spot prices decreased by ~27% YoY, 128Gb MLC prices decreased ~24%, 64Gb TLC prices decreased ~16%, while 64Gb MLC prices remained stable. […]
Read More4 Reasons Why Self-Driving Cars Are Coming Sooner Than You Think
I believe we have today a unique confluence of factors that are enabling and accelerating progress in self-driving car technology. If you are not expecting self-driving cars to start hitting the streets around the world in the next 5 years, then I would urge you to reconsider your assumptions. Probably the most important factor at […]
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