Category Archives: 4SAFEt

What Valuation is the Stock Trading On?

Stock Prices can be linked to business fundamentals through one or more Valuation Metrics. When a given valuation metric is found to track (i.e. correlate with) one or more business fundamental metrics, the stock is said to be “trading on” that (driving) valuation metric. Conversely, when a given valuation metric is found not to track […]

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Exploring $SYNA Valuation Discount

SYNA stock is down ~25% YTD, trading at EV/S of ~1x (vs. peer group at ~3x+), a valuation discount worth exploring. Synaptics was affected by the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 fiasco over the last year, as well as a secular shift toward integrated touch+display-driver (TDDI), starting with lower-margin low-end phones in China. The shift toward […]

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Interpreting $FCAU Investment Risks

FCAU (Fiat Chrysler Automobiles) appears to be attracting attention recently, with the stock up ~27% over the last 3 months vs. S&P 500 index up ~3%. Starting with FCAU’s valuation discount, I try to interpret investment risks for the stock. The chart below compares FCAU with U.S. peers Ford, GM, and Tesla. At EV/S (TTM) […]

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$MU Positive Pre-Announcement

Earlier this week Micron increased its earnings guidance for the quarter ending Nov-16, to be reported later this month. Revised guidance is for revenues and EPS to be significantly above the high-end of prior guidance, and gross margins to be at the high-end of prior guidance, driven primarily by higher DRAM prices. Micron also noted […]

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What is Risk? A Practical Perspective

You and I use the word “risk” frequently in our lives, without really thinking about its definition or knowing whether others around us think of it the same way as us. Not having a specific definition of risk might be acceptable in a non-financial setting; but when it comes to investing, it is critical to […]

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Watch the Video – Sundeep Bajikar on 5GQ

  Many thanks to Jake Taylor at 5GQ for creating this interview with me. Jake certainly does ask 5 Good Questions. Hope you enjoy it. Here are Jake’s excellent questions: 1. If you’re a generalist investor, do you have any business venturing into technology investments? Or are you setting yourself up for failure by venturing […]

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A Reading List for Value Investors

Many of you have asked for my book recommendations, so I decided to publish book reviews after first introducing a reading list for value investors. Value investing is a deeply psychological exercise, one that is usually at odds with the seductive sirens of the stock market as well as society in general, and this is […]

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Watch the Video – Mohnish Pabrai

  Here are some of my takeaways from this wonderful talk given by superinvestor (value investor) Mohnish Pabrai last month (October 2016) to a classroom in China. Every minute of it is worth watching – it is both highly instructional as well as funny at times, and provides clues for why most active managers underperform/fail […]

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$INFN Path to Recovery

INFN stock is down ~50% YTD driven by sharp YoY declines in revenues and earnings (see chart below). Both company management and investors seem to be surprised at the extent of revenue declines, which after progressively worsening have driven INFN’s EV/S valuation multiple near ~1x.     This level of stock decline typically carries with […]

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Can $AMZN be a Value Stock?

I previously wrote about AMZN valuation risk here, and valuation will often be a concern for high-growth companies. Implicit in that view is a concern that revenue growth might decelerate (too soon). What if 1) the target market is measured in trillions of dollars, 2) disruptive business model is working across multiple verticals, 3) earnings […]

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Equity Research for the Technology Investor - Value Investing in Technology Stocks