Try looking in the monthly archives. May 2016

What is Risk? A Value Investor’s Perspective

Beating the market consistently involves taking a different approach to managing investment risk. Coming up with a framework to think about different types of risks serves as a foundation for determining what risk controls to use. The chart below is one such framework that I pieced together, with help from my friend Zack Perry, who […]

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$CAVM – Value in Fallen Growth Stock?

The average investor is unlikely to view CAVM as a value stock, at least at current levels. It certainly could be a value stock in my framework with conviction around re-acceleration of YoY revenues. Cavium’s potential problems may not be unique relative to its own history, particularly in the 2012-2013 timeframe, which is when I […]

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$AMAT Stock Catching Up To Fundamentals

Picking up where I left off discussion of AMAT in my book, the period following TEL (Tokyo Electron) merger termination proved to be a good time to buy the stock, with good margin of safety. As the charts below illustrate, even though fundamentals for AMAT (as represented by NTM EPS estimates) on a standalone basis […]

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NAND Spot Prices May 2016

The chart shows NAND spot prices as of May 2016 for 64Gb and 128Gb MLC and TLC NAND components, based on data provided by inSpectrum. According to this data, 128Gb TLC spot prices decreased by ~27% YoY, 128Gb MLC prices decreased ~24%, 64Gb TLC prices decreased ~16%, while 64Gb MLC prices remained stable.   ‎ […]

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4 Reasons Why Self-Driving Cars Are Coming Sooner Than You Think

I believe we have today a unique confluence of factors that are enabling and accelerating progress in self-driving car technology. If you are not expecting self-driving cars to start hitting the streets around the world in the next 5 years, then I would urge you to reconsider your assumptions. Probably the most important factor at […]

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DRAM Spot Prices May 2016

The chart shows DRAM spot prices as of mid-May 2016 for 4Gb DDR3 and DDR4 DRAM, based on data provided by inSpectrum. According to this data, 4Gb DDR3 spot prices decreased by 17% YTD, while 4Gb DDR4 prices decreased by 30%. DDR3 prices decreased by ~50% last year.   ‎   To interpret what market […]

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$MBLY Valuation and Momentum Indicators

The chart below suggests that over its limited history (~couple of years) as a public company, Mobileye (NYSE: MBLY) stock price has not appreciated significantly even though NTM EPS estimate forecasts have been on an upward trajectory, indicating solid growth fundamentals. I think there are two potential explanations for the stock price action: 1) the […]

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$NVDA Priced for Perfection?

The chart below compares NVDA stock price performance with NTM EPS forecasts over the last 10 years. After tracking EPS forecasts closely until mid-2010, NVDA stock underperformed EPS forecasts until recently. The chart suggests NVDA stock is finally caught up with EPS forecasts, which have generally moved higher over the last ~5 years, as gaming, […]

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Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger Quotes from 2016 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting

  “Running a public company you do waste time on certain things … like explaining quarterly earnings to analysts” “decided fairly early in life that my favorite employer was myself …” “(Shift from push marketing to pull marketing) is huge … hugely powerful trend” “In the end business in this country has done remarkably well […]

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$IBM Valuation and Momentum Indicators

The chart below suggests that over the last 10 years, IBM’s stock price has tracked NTM EPS estimates with occasional periods of divergence. Over the last few years IBM’s stock price tracked below NTM EPS estimates, as IBM’s P/E valuation multiple compressed.     The chart below suggests that over the last 10 years, IBM’s […]

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Equity Research for the Technology Investor - Value Investing in Technology Stocks